Hmmm, interesting. The Standard is reporting on the first opinion poll results I’ve seen since the New Zealand general elections in 2008. As an exercise I put both results through the MMP elections calculator.

The results of the 2008 election, taken from Wikipedia:

National 58 seats; Labour 43 seats; Greens 9 seats; ACT 5 seats; Maori 5 seats; Progressives 1 seat; Ünited Future 1 seat.

Assuming the electorate seats do not change, the Roy Morgan Poll:

National 60 seats; Labour 40 seats; Greens 11 seats; Maori 5 seats; ACT 3 seats; Progressives 1 seat; United Future 1 seat

And the same for the TV3 poll:

National 73 seats; Labour 33 seats; Greens 9 seats; Maori 5 seats; ACT 1 seat; Progressives 1 seat; United Future 1 seat

My own opinion is what voters say to a pollster is not necessarily the same as what they will tick in a polling booth. The government is riding a wave of popularity that appeals even to swinging voters who supported the centre-left opposition. The change in leadership in the Labour Party has not impressed the opinionistas. Despiter her abdication Labour is still seen as Helen Clark lite and voters are still tired of that face. I’m still nostalgic for the statesman-like leadership of the former government. At the moment the current government is still announcing policy that the previous government put in place. The affects of recession slow-down have not hit our islands. From all I see the government are deliberately determined not to prepare for the credit crunch. I will be interested to see if this popularity remains resilient over the next 12 months.

Mind you, as I’ve put on my bio, I’m politically biased.

Advertisements